The Natural and Societal Challenges of the Northern Sea Route: A Reference Work

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This delayed cooling is the reverse of the delayed warming associated with Arctic amplification as described by Screen and Simmonds , by which an energy surplus in summer elevates SST in fall, enhancing warming throughout the Arctic basin in winter.

These surface cloud radiative effects are strongly seasonal, with peak warming in May, when higher surface albedo from remaining sea ice in spring reduces cloud shading effects so cloud longwave heating dominates, followed by cooling in July, when cloud shading of the surface outweighs cloud longwave heating Figure S4. Instead, clouds cool the lower atmosphere through enhanced longwave outgoing radiation. This energy loss in the lower atmosphere is then mediated by sensible heat transfer from the surface Figure S5.

The overall effect is the significant surface cooling in the latter half of the 21st century. This is because in contrast to previous studies, increased BC emissions do not cause significant warming in our simulations relative to cloud radiative effects, in line with minor BC radiative forcing found in the Arctic from in situ measurements 0. Instead, aerosol direct effects are offset by reduced water vapor enabling increased shortwave downwelling and reduced surface albedo from BC is counteracted by substantial increases in cloud albedo.

Although the CESM model that we use is more sophisticated than those used in prior studies, it is possible that the cooling we simulate may reflect enhanced liquid water path caused by a large decrease in the rate of conversion of cloud to rainwater when cloud droplet number increases Wang et al. CAM5 has been shown to underestimate cloud liquid water path and ice water path in the Arctic relative to observations, though to a lesser degree than other CMIP5 models Komurcu et al.

Our results should not be taken as an endorsement of Arctic shipping as a solution to climate change. As shipping will likely contribute a minor share of the total Arctic aerosol emissions by midcentury Browse et al. Furthermore, planned global limits on ships' SO 2 emissions after IMO, will reduce aerosol cooling from shipping in much the same way that air quality improvements since the s have unmasked GHG warming in urban areas.

In this way, the net climatic impact of Arctic shipping will ultimately depend on international regulatory and trade agreements in addition to marine access.

Our results thus highlight a need for integrated analysis of climatic and transport systems to further clarify the reciprocal relationship of climate and human activities in the Arctic. Stephenson S. Geophysical Research Letters , 45 , — National Center for Biotechnology Information , U. Geophysical Research Letters. Geophys Res Lett. Published online Sep Scott R. Stephenson , 1 Wenshan Wang , 2 Charles S. Zender , 2 Hailong Wang , 3 Steven J. Davis , 2 and Philip J.

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Rasch 3. Charles S. Steven J. Philip J. Author information Article notes Copyright and License information Disclaimer.

Climatic Responses to Future Trans‐Arctic Shipping

Stephenson, Email: ude. Corresponding author. Stephenson, ude. The Authors. Associated Data Supplementary Materials. Supporting Information S1. Abstract As global temperatures increase, sea ice loss will increasingly enable commercial shipping traffic to cross the Arctic Ocean, where the ships' gas and particulate emissions may have strong regional effects.

Methods 2. Technical Shipping Access The methodology for calculating technical shipping access extends the approach of Stephenson and Smith Shipping Emissions In addition to technical accessibility, Arctic routes require a cost incentive to justify their use over the traditional Suez Canal route. Open in a separate window. Figure 1. Figure 2.

Introduction

Figure 3. Figure 4. Supporting information. Supporting Information S1 Click here for additional data file. Notes Stephenson S. North Carolina Department of Transportation. Aksenov Y. Marine Policy , 75 , — Think again: The Arctic. Foreign Policy Brigham L. London: Kluwer Academic Publishers; Geophysical Research Letters , 40 , — Second IMO greenhouse gas study International Maritime Organization. Charlson R. Climate forcing by anthropogenic aerosols. Science , 24 , — Geophysical Research Letters , 41 , — The shifting geopolitics of water in the Anthropocene. Geopolitics , 22 2 , — Arctic warming, increasing snow cover and widespread boreal winter cooling.

Environmental Research Letters , 7 1 , Containerisation international yearbook London: Informa UK. Arctic shipping emissions inventories and future scenarios. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics , 10 19 , — Humidity trends imply increased sensitivity to clouds in a warming Arctic. Nature Communications , 6 1 , Arctic sea ice melt leads to atmospheric new particle formation. Scientific Reports , 7 1 , Environmental impacts of shipping in with a particular focus on the Arctic region. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics , 13 4 , — Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres , , — Commercial Arctic shipping through the Northeast Passage: Routes, resources, governance, technology, and infrastructure.

Polar Geography , 37 4 , — Climate penalty for shifting shipping to the Arctic. Environmental Science and Technology , 48 22 , 13,—13, How important are future marine and shipping aerosol emissions in warming Arctic summer and autumn? Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions , 1— Assessing the impact of shipping emissions on air pollution in the Canadian Arctic and northern regions: Current and future modelled scenarios.

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society , 94 9 , — The global sulphur limit.


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Flato, P. Friedlingstein, C. Jones, J. Lamarque, H. Liao and P. Rasch eds. Contribution of working group I to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change pp. Journal of Climate , 25 5 , — Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society , 96 8 , — Exposing global cloud biases in the Community Atmosphere Model CAM using satellite observations and their corresponding instrument simulators. Journal of Climate , 25 15 , — Environmental Research Letters , 12 2 , Intercomparison of the cloud water phase among global climate models.

Historical — gridded anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions of reactive gases and aerosols: Methodology and application. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics , 10 15 , — Simulations of shipping along Arctic routes: Comparison, analysis and economic perspectives.